Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
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cost benefits of rehabilitation after acute coronary syndrome in iran; using an epidemiological model
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X - 2 WERNER AND SORNETTE : MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES AND FORECASTS the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clust...
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The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model is a self-similar statistical model for earthquake aftershock sequences. A prescribed parent earthquake generates a first generation of daughter aftershocks. The magnitudes and times of occurrence of the daughters are obtained from statistical distributions. The first generation daughter aftershocks then become parent earthquakes that generate seco...
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5 [1] Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial‐temporal point process 6 models such as the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). 7 Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for 8 earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically 9 removed prior to fitting a point process mode...
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Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Forecasting
سال: 2020
ISSN: 2571-9394
DOI: 10.3390/forecast2030016